วันจันทร์ที่ 6 ตุลาคม พ.ศ. 2551

Game Theory

Game theory analyzes strategic interactions in which the outcome of one's choices depends upon the choices of others. For a situation to be considered a game, there must be at least two rational players who take into account one another's actions when formulating their own strategies.
If one does not consider the actions of other players, then the problem becomes one of standard decision analysis, and one is likely to arrive at a strategy that is not optimal. For example, a company that reduces prices to increase sales and therefore increase profit may lose money if other players respond with price cuts. As another example, consider a risk averse company that makes its decisions by maximizing its minimum payoff (maxmin strategy) without considering the reactions of its opponents. In such a case, the minimum payoff might be one that would not have occurred anyway because the opponent might never find it optimal to implement a strategy that would make it come about. In many situations, it is crucial to consider the moves of one's opponent(s).
Game theory assumes that one has opponents who are adjusting their strategies according to what they believe everybody else is doing. The exact level of sophistication of the opponents should be part of one's strategy. If the opponent makes his/her decisions randomly, then one's strategy might be very different than it would be if the opponent is considering other's moves. To analyze such a game, one puts oneself in the other player's shoes, recognizing that the opponent, being clever, is doing the same. When this consideration of the other player's moves continues indefinitely, the result is an infinite regress. Game theory provides the tools to analyze such problems.
Game theory can be used to analyze a wide range of strategic interaction environments including oligopolies, sports, and politics. Many product failures can be attributed to the failure to consider adequately the responses of competitors. Game theory forces one to consider the range of a rival's responses.

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